经济学人阅读｜扉页文章 Power in the 21st century

09.21｜经济学人阅读｜扉页文章 Power in the 21st century

经济学人The Economist是一份英国的英文新闻周报，分八个版本于每周五向全球发行，编辑部位于伦敦，创办于1843年9月。

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今天羚羊君（公众：aa-acad）给大家分享的是经济学人2020年9月19日期刊中扉页文章的第一篇：Power in the 21st century。

这篇文章主要谈论到了在疫情影响下，石油等化石能源逐渐式微，新能源将会崛起。笔者列举了石油和新能源对环境、政治、经济的危害和好处，也提及了贸然转变能源模式可能面临的风险。

想要阅读往期内容，可以在公众号右下角点击"更多资讯-长文阅读"进入专栏。

01

Power in the 21st century

二十一世纪的能源

OIL FUELLED the 20th century—its cars, its wars, its economy and its geopolitics. Now the world is in the midst of an energy shock that is speeding up the shift to a new order. As covid-19 struck the global economy earlier this year, demand for oil dropped by more than a fifth and prices collapsed. Since then there has been a jittery recovery, but a return to the old world is unlikely. Fossil-fuel producers are being forced to confront their vulnerabilities. ExxonMobil has been ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, having been a member since 1928. Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia need an oil price of $70-80 a barrel to balance their budgets. Today it is scraping along at just $40.

石油在20世纪盛行，与它相关的有汽车、战争、经济和地缘政治。现在，世界正处于能源加速向新秩序转变的冲击中。随着新冠病毒在今年年初袭击全球经济，世界对石油的需求下降了五分之一以上，石油价格暴跌。从那以后，虽然出现了复苏，但重新回到旧世界的可能性并不大。化石燃料的生产者将被迫面对自己的脆弱性。埃克森美孚自1928年加入了琼斯工业平均指数，但如今却撤出了。沙特阿拉伯等石油国家需要每桶70-80美元的油价才能平衡预算。但如今，石油的价格仅为40美元。

02

There have been oil slumps before, but this one is different. As the public, governments and investors wake up to climate change, the clean-energy industry is gaining momentum. Capital markets have shifted: clean-power stocks are up by 45% this year. With interest rates near zero, politicians are backing green-infrastructure plans. America’s Democratic presidential contender, Joe Biden, wants to spend $2trn decarbonising America’s economy. The European Union has earmarked 30% of its $880bn covid-19 recovery plan for climate measures, and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, used her state-of-the-union address this week to confirm that she wants the EU to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 55% over 1990 levels in the next decade.

虽然以前油价也曾经跌过，但这次不一样。随着民众、政府和投资者对气候变化的重视，清洁能源产业正在蓬勃发展。今年资本市场发生了变化：今年清洁能源的股票上涨了45％。由于利率接近于零，政客们正在支持绿色基础设施计划。美国民主党总统候选人乔·拜登希望花费2百亿美元来使美国经济去除碳元素。欧盟已将其用于新冠疫情复苏计划的8800亿美元中的30％专用于气候措施，欧盟主席乌尔苏拉·冯·德·莱恩本周在她的国情咨文上，确认了她希望欧盟在接下来的十年中，温室气体排放量将比1990年的水平减少55％。

03

The 21st-century energy system promises to be better than the oil age—better for human health, more politically stable and less economically volatile. The shift involves big risks. If disorderly, it could add to political and economic instability in petrostates and concentrate control of the green-supply chain in China. Even more dangerous, it could happen too slowly.

21世纪的能源系统有望比石油时代在人类健康、政治稳定、经济平稳方面更好。但这种转变也涉及很大的风险。如果转变无序的话，它可能会加剧石油国家政治和经济的不稳定，也能增加中国对绿色供应链的垄断。更危险的是，这种转变是缓慢进行的。

04

Today fossil fuels are the ultimate source of 85% of energy. But this system is dirty. Energy accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions; the pollution from burning fossil fuels kills over 4m people a year, mostly in the emerging world’s mega-cities. Oil has also created political instability. For decades petrostates such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with little incentive to develop their economies, have been mired in the politics of handouts and cronyism. In an effort to ensure secure supplies, the world’s big powers have vied to influence these states, not least in the Middle East, where America has roughly 60,000 troops. Fossil fuels cause economic volatility, too. Oil markets are buffeted by an erratic cartel. Concentration of the world’s oil reserves makes supply vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Little wonder that the price has swung by over 30% in a sixth-month period 62 times since 1970.

今天，化石燃料已成为85％的能源的最终来源。但是这个系统并不干净。化石燃料的温室气体排放量占总的三分之二；燃烧化石燃料造成的污染每年造成超过400万人死亡，其中大部分是在新兴世界的大城市中。石油还造成了政治动荡。几十年来，委内瑞拉和沙特阿拉伯等石油国家几乎没有进行发展经济的，却陷入了帮派和裙带关系的政治漩涡中。为了确保供应的安全，世界上的大国已经在争相影响这些国家，尤其是在中东，那里有大约60,000名美国士兵。化石燃料也能造成经济动荡。石油市场受到卡特尔国内动荡的打击。世界石油储备的集中使供应容易受到地缘政治冲击的影响。难怪自1970年以来，石油价格有62次，半年内的波动超过了30％。

05

A picture of the new energy system is emerging. With bold action, renewable electricity such as solar and wind power could rise from 5% of supply today to 25% in 2035, and nearly 50% by 2050. Oil and coal use will drop, although cleaner natural gas will remain central. This architecture will ultimately bring huge benefits. Most important, decarbonising energy will avoid the chaos of unchecked climate change, including devastating droughts, famine, floods and mass dislocation. Once mature, it should be more politically stable, too, because supply will be diversified, geographically and technologically. Petrostates will have to attempt to reform themselves and, as their governments start to depend on taxing their own citizens, some will become more representative. Consuming countries, which once sought energy security by meddling in the politics of the oil producers, will instead look to sensible regulation of their own power industry. The 21st-century system should also be less economically volatile. Electricity prices will be determined not by a few big actors but by competition and gradual efficiency gains.

新能源系统的图景正在出现。如果采取大胆的行动，太阳能和风能等可再生能源将从现在的供应的5％增长到2035年的25％，到2050年将达到近50％。石油和煤炭的使用量将下降，尽管更清洁的天然气将仍然是主要能源。这种架构最终将带来巨大的好处。最重要的是，除碳能源将避免不受控制的气候变化带来的混乱，包括毁灭性的干旱，饥荒，洪水和大规模人口迁移。供应链一旦成熟，政治也会更加稳定，因为能源供应将在地理和技术上多样化。石油国将不得不尝试进行自我改革，并且随着其政府开始依赖向本国公民征税，一些国家将变得更具代表性。曾经通过干预石油生产国的政治来寻求能源安全的消费国，将寻求对自己的电力行业进行明智的监管。21世纪的能源系统对经济的波动影响也较小。电价将不再由几个主要参与者决定，而是由竞争和逐步提高的生产效率来决定。

06

Yet even as a better energy system emerges, the threat of a poorly managed transition looms. Two risks stand out. Autocratic China could temporarily gain clout over the global power system because of its dominance in making key components and developing new technologies. Today Chinese firms produce 72% of the world’s solar modules, 69% of its lithium-ion batteries and 45% of its wind turbines. They also control much of the refining of minerals critical to clean energy, such as cobalt and lithium. Instead of a petrostate, the People’s Republic may become an “electrostate”. In the past six months it has announced investments in electric-car infrastructure and transmission, tested a nuclear plant in Pakistan and considered stockpiling cobalt.

然而，即使出现了更好的能源系统，过渡管理不善的威胁也隐约可见。有两个风险特别突出。中国可能会暂时获得全球电力系统的影响力，因为它在制造关键部件和开发新技术方面占据主导地位。如今，中国公司生产全球72％的太阳能模块，69％的锂离子电池和45％的风力涡轮机。它们还控制着许多对清洁能源至关重要的矿物的精炼，例如钴和锂。 中国可能会变成"电力国"，而不是石油国。在过去的六个月中，中国宣布对电动汽车基础设施和变速器进行投资，在巴基斯坦的一家核电厂进行了测试，并考虑了钴的储备。

07

China’s leverage depends on how fast other economies move (see Briefing). Europe is home to giant developers of wind and solar farms—Orsted, Enel and Iberdrola are building such projects around the world. European firms are leading the race to cut their own emissions, too. America’s trajectory has been affected by the rise of shale oil and gas, which has made it the world’s largest oil producer, and by Republican resistance to decarbonisation measures. If America were to act on climate change—with, say, a carbon tax and new infrastructure—its capital markets, national energy laboratories and universities would make it a formidable green power.

中国的杠杆率取决于其他经济体的发展速度。欧洲是风力发电场和太阳能发电场的大型开发商的故乡，Orsted，Enel和Iberdrola正在全球范围内建设此类项目。 欧洲公司也在引领减少自身排放的竞赛。美国的新能源发展轨迹受到页岩油气（使其成为世界上最大的石油生产国）的兴起以及共和党人对脱碳措施的抵制的影响。如果美国要对气候变化采取行动，例如征收碳税和建设新的基础设施，其资本市场、国家能源实验室和大学将使其成为强大的绿色大国。

08

The other big risk is the transition of petrostates, which account for 8% of world GDP and nearly 900m citizens. As oil demand dwindles, they will face a vicious fight for market share which will be won by the countries with the cheapest and cleanest crude. Even as they grapple with the growing urgency of economic and political reform, the public resources to pay for it may dwindle. This year Saudi Arabia’s government revenue fell by 49% in the second quarter. A perilous few decades lie ahead.

另一个重大风险是石油国家的转型，石油国家占世界GDP的8％，拥有近9亿人口。 随着石油需求的减少，它们将面临市场份额的恶性争夺，这将由石油最便宜和最清洁的原油国家赢得。即使他们为应对经济和政治改革的紧迫性而战，但为此付出的公共资源却可能减少。今年第二季度，沙特阿拉伯的政府收入下降了49％。未来几十年的危机即将到来。

09

Faced with these dangers, the temptation will be to ease the adjustment, by taking the transition more slowly. However, that would bring about a different, even more destabilising set of climate-related consequences. Instead, as our special report in this issue explains, the investments being contemplated fall drastically short of what is needed to keep temperatures within 2°C of pre-industrial levels, let alone the 1.5°C required to limit the environmental, economic and political turmoil of climate change. For example, annual investment in wind and solar capacity needs to be about $750bn, triple recent levels. And if the shift towards fossil-fuel-free renewable energy accelerates, as it must, it will cause even more geopolitical turbulence. The move to a new energy order is vital, but it will be messy.

面对这些危险，解决方法在于通过更缓慢的方式来过渡和简化调整。但是，这将带来一系列与气候相关的不同的甚至更加不稳定的后果。相反，正如我们在本期特别报告中所解释的那样，正在考虑的投资远远低于将温度保持在工业化前水平的2°C之内所需的资金，更不用说限制环境，经济和政治要求的1.5°C了。例如，风能和太阳能的年度投资需要约为7500亿美元，是近期投资水平的三倍。而且，如果必须加速向无化石燃料的可再生能源的转变，这将引起更大的地缘政治动荡。虽然迈向新能源秩序至关重要，但这将造成一团糟。

经济学人一般目录大纲：

The world this week：简单梳理本周的时事Leaders：社论，对本周热点事件进行评论Briefing：简报，对一个特定热点话题深度讨论Letter：读者来信，对往期文章的评论Sections：各大洲及中美英三国的本周热点事件报道Business：商业新闻Finances and economics：财经新闻Science and technology：科技新闻Books and arts：文化书籍，书评和文化现象讨论Economic and financial indicators：商业及财经指数

Buttonwood：金融专栏Schumpeter：商业专栏Bartleby：职场专栏Bagehot：英国专栏Charlemagne：欧洲专栏Lexington：美国专栏Banyan：亚洲专栏